The panic index fell 15.7%. The Dow reversed 114 points higher.

Release time：May 16, 2019 From：admin

 Beijing time 11 am, US stocks closed higher Friday, the Dow 470 points to achieve reversal, by the turn fell about 360 points to close at 114 points. US inflation data in April fell short of expectations, indicating that US inflationary pressures remain moderate. The market is assessing the impact that CPI data may have on the Fed's monetary policy.

At 16:00 on May 10th (04:00 on May 11th, Beijing time), the Dow rose 114.01 points, or 0.44%, to 25,942.37 points; the S&P 500 index rose 10.68 points, or 0.37%, to 2,881.40. Point; the Nasdaq rose 6.35 points, or 0.08%, to 7916.94 points.

US stocks opened lower on Friday, the Dow once fell 358 points, the lowest fell to 25,469.86 points, but from the afternoon the US stocks three major stock indexes gradually rebounded and eventually closed higher.

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which measures market panic, fell 15.7% to 16.11.

The upside down of US Treasury yields has received much attention. The 3-month US bond yield and the 10-year US bond yield once again fell back. Usually the inversion of Treasury yields is seen as the exact sign of a recession.

In the past 50 years, there have been six cases in which the US dollar bond yield exceeded the 10-year US bond yield. The US economy fell into recession within 311 days after the interest rate release reversed signal. In 1989, 2000, and 2006, interest rate inversions occurred, and in 1990, 2001, and 2008, the economy was in recession.

Gluskin Sheff chief economist David Rosenberg said: "I think we will enter a recession. I may not be able to accurately say the exact time it will happen, but it will happen. People often forget that the cause of the recession is monetary policy. The tightening cycle lags behind the time when GDP growth is finally affected."

Danske Bank Bank analyst said: "We are about to enter a period of significant increase in uncertainty, but we still need to wait for some news results to be released before we can make further assessments."

The prospects for international economic growth have received attention. The latest data released by the UK indicates that the UK economy accelerated at the beginning of 2019. According to preliminary data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (ONS) on Friday, in the first quarter of 2019, the UK's gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.5%. The data is in line with economists' previous predictions and marks the acceleration of UK GDP growth by 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2018.

Economic data, the US Department of Labor reported that the US consumer price index (CPI) rose 2% year-on-year in April, lower than market expectations, indicating that the US inflationary pressure is still moderate. Market participants believe that this data shows that the Fed will continue to maintain interest rates for some time to come.

Specific data, the United States April CPI increased by 2%, expected 2.1%, the previous value of 1.9%. In April, the CPI increased by 0.3% from the previous month, and was expected to be 0.4%, with a previous value of 0.4%.

Excluding food and energy prices, the US core CPI rose 2.1% year-on-year in April, in line with market expectations. The core CPI in April increased by 0.1% from the previous month, which was lower than the market expectation of 0.2%.

CPI data shows that although the US unemployment rate is at its lowest level in 49 years and wages continue to increase, the continued recovery of inflation may be difficult to achieve for some time. But US prices may increase in the coming months.

The speech of the Fed officials was concerned by the market. Federal Reserve officials who spoke on Friday include Fed Governor Lael Brainard, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, and New York Fed President John Williams )Wait.

Brainard said on Friday that the Fed is committed to achieving the mission of full employment and helping the US economy grow.

Williams said on Friday that he did not see signs of rising inflationary pressures. The global economy has not fully escaped the risk of slowing down. Geopolitical tensions and the uncertainty of Brexit have put the current economy at a downside risk.

Bostik said his basic expectation for monetary policy is to raise interest rates once in 2019, but the premise of this expectation is that inflation data has become strong. If inflation falls below 1.7%, any policy action will be possible.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said at a press conference after the Fed’s interest rate decision in May that the weakening of core inflation in the first quarter was not related to the Fed’s interest rate hike. There may be some temporary factors at work, and the inflation rate is expected to pick up. But some Fed officials and senior White House officials do not recognize Powell’s optimism about inflation.

St. Louis Fed President Brad and Chicago Fed President Evans expressed concern about the downturn in inflation on May 3 and believed that the Fed needs to cut interest rates to boost inflation and economic growth. On the same day, two high-ranking White House officials joined forces to pressure the Fed.