In the off-season, "steel needs" is weak and stubborn?

Release time：May 14, 2019 From：ADMIN

In April 2019, all localities were at the peak of project construction. At the same time, the National Development and Reform Commission also accelerated the approval process of the project, and continued to increase the support of the short-board, which led to the continued prosperity of the construction machinery industry, and the growth rate of real estate investment remained high. Both make building materials demand more than expected. However, for sheet metal demand, the pressure is still large, the auto industry is still sluggish but in a structural transformation, and the machinery industry continues to thrive due to the continued recovery of infrastructure and the high level of real estate investment.

First, real estate investment remains high

According to the monitoring data, from January to March 2019, the national real estate development investment was 2,380.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.8%, and the growth rate was 0.2 percentage points higher than that in January and February. From January to March, the construction area of real estate development enterprises was 699.44 million square meters, an increase of 8.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 1.4 percentage points higher than that in January and February. The newly started housing area was 387.28 million square meters, an increase of 11.9%, and the growth rate increased by 5.9 percentage points. The completed area of housing was 184.74 million square meters, down 10.8%, and the decline was narrowed by 1.1 percentage points. Under the effect of the policy of “stable price, stable housing prices, and stable expectations”, the real estate market has undergone positive changes, and the main indicators have been in a stable and positive trend. In the first quarter, real estate development investment increased by 11.8% year-on-year, with a growth rate of 0.2 percentage points higher than that of January and February; real estate new construction area increased by 11.9%, up 5.9 percentage points; commercial housing sales area decreased by 0.9%, and the decline narrowed by 2.7 percentage points. At the end of March, the area of sale of commercial housing nationwide decreased by 6.05 million square meters from the end of February, down 9.9% year-on-year.

Second, infrastructure investment continues to pick up

Since October 2018, the growth rate of infrastructure investment in the country has continued to pick up. In the first quarter of 2019, the growth rate was 4.4% year-on-year. The growth rate was 0.1 percentage points higher than that in January and February, and 0.6 percentage points higher than last year. Among them, the railway transportation industry investment increased by 11%, last year's decline of 5.1%; road transport industry investment increased by 10.5%, the growth rate increased by 2.3 percentage points over the whole of last year; information transmission industry investment increased by 35.5%, the growth rate increased by 32.4 Percentage points; investment in ecological protection and environmental governance industry increased by 43%, and the growth rate was the same as last year. In the first quarter, fixed assets investment in transportation was at a high level, and railways, civil aviation, and highways all maintained double-digit growth. According to statistics from the Ministry of Transport, in the first quarter, transportation fixed assets investment was 488.9 billion yuan, up 4.8% year-on-year, higher than last year's 0.7% growth rate. From the perspective of different modes of transportation, railway and civil aviation investment respectively reached 101.2 billion yuan and 15.5 billion yuan, up 10.0% and 10.7%; road waterway completed investment of 372.2 billion yuan, an increase of 3.3%, of which highways completed investment of 191.5 billion yuan. The growth rate was 12.6%, and the inland river completed investment of 11.3 billion yuan, an increase of 9.3%.

Third, the automotive industry structural transformation

From January to March 2019, automobile production and sales still showed a certain decline, and the decline was narrower than that in January and February. According to the statistics of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in January-March, the production and sales of automobiles were 6.336 million and 6.372 million respectively, and the production and sales decreased by 9.8% and 11.3% respectively compared with the same period of the previous year, respectively. 3.6 percentage points. Among them, the production and sales of passenger cars were 5.227 million and 5.263 million respectively, and the production and sales decreased by 12.4% and 13.7% respectively. The decline was 4.4 and 3.8 percentage points lower than that of January-February. The production and sales of commercial vehicles were 1.10 million and 1.11 million respectively, and the production and sales increased by 5% and 2.2% respectively over the same period of the previous year. From January to March, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 304,000 and 299,000 respectively, an increase of 102.7% and 109.7% over the same period of the previous year. Among them, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles were 226,000 and 227,000, respectively, an increase of 109.3% and 121.4% over the same period of the previous year. In 2019, the internal and external environment of China's economy has undergone profound changes. The automobile industry, which is the backbone of the national economy, is also facing unprecedented challenges. After the 28-year growth of China's auto production and sales, the first negative growth occurred in 2018. The Chinese auto industry is also facing transformation and upgrading, upgrading its technological innovation capabilities, promoting high-quality development, deepening reform and opening up, and accelerating green development.

Fourth, the machinery industry continues to thrive

According to the statistics of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, the sales volume of excavators in the first quarter of 2019 was 74,779 units, an increase of 24.5%; the accumulated domestic sales of 69,329 units, an increase of 24%; the cumulative export of 5,450 units, an increase of 31.9%. In the first quarter, the sales volume of loaders was 31,358 units, up 2.51% year-on-year; the cumulative domestic sales were 25,278 units, up 2.26% year-on-year; the cumulative exports were 6,080 units, up 3.58% year-on-year. In the first quarter, the sales volume of graders was 1,226 units, down 20.54% year-on-year, of which 609 units were exported in the first quarter, down 22.02% year-on-year. In the first quarter, the sales volume of bulldozers was 1,800 units, down 14.9% year-on-year, of which 503 were bulldozers, a slight decrease of 5% year-on-year. Since 2019, the real estate investment completion and new construction area have grown steadily. In addition, the tightening of environmental protection verification will speed up the release of demand, and the National Standards for the National Three Exchanges are expected to promote the renewal of demand and continue to contribute to the construction machinery industry.

In summary, the current peak season is nearing completion, and the traditional off-season has arrived. The construction progress of the project will be affected by the high temperature in the north and the rainy season in the south, which will reduce the demand for building materials and increase the pressure on the demand for sheet metal. It is still at a low point, and the growth rate of machinery industry sales has begun to slow down, which will make the off-season "steel demand" full of hidden concerns.