The social security contraction is shrinking, and the trade war is escalating, so that the steel market risk is closely monitored.

Release time：May 09, 2019 From：admin

Today, the domestic steel market as a whole is still in a state of yin, although under the disturbance of the external news, the market has not seen a significant adjustment pace. However, the overall performance is still weak, and the market mentality is biased to watch. 

    The futures market is slightly different, showing “strong raw materials, weak materials”, coke and iron ore oscillating upwards, and the following main behaviors of other varieties. Among them, the snail failed to maintain after the early rush, and the intraday trading broke the 3,700 yuan integer mark, and the market was pulled up again, and the decline narrowed. 

    The spot varieties continued to maintain a small downside, the market trading atmosphere was light, the merchants ran down, and the transaction continued to weaken. 

    Regarding a new trend in Sino-US trade, the US intends to raise the tariff of 200 billion US dollars of Chinese exports to the United States from 10% to 25% on May 10. The Ministry of Commerce stated that if the US tariff measures are implemented, China will have to take necessary countermeasures. In the afternoon, the anti-dumping measures against alloy steel seamless steel pipes in Europe and the United States were reviewed at the end of the period. 

    The two sides have come to me, making the negotiations once again deadlocked. It seems that they have returned to the original point overnight, which has increased the probability of market volatility to a certain extent. Tomorrow is Friday, it is a key time node. The market is generally worried about whether there will be variables, and the mood will inevitably fluctuate. 

    On the macro news front, the Statistics Bureau today unveiled the new phase of inflation data and social welfare data. There is no overall point in the overall situation. In particular, the social welfare is not ideal, which is more than half of the previous year’s 2.86 trillion. Also lower than the same period last year. In addition, in April, as the economic leading indicator, the growth rate of excavator sales slowed down noticeably, which also sounded the alarm for the market. 

    Going back to the fundamentals of the steel market, from the perspective of the new inventory data, the market is still in the channel of de-stocking. The worst tiring concern has not yet appeared, but the de-banking has indeed slowed down, and the steel mills' inventory has declined slightly. 

    At present, the key points of market contradiction have not changed significantly. They still focus on the peripheral news and market supply and demand. The main contradictions are temporarily weakly balanced, but it is necessary to prevent and control the risk factors that may appear. 

    In terms of price, according to the monitoring data, today, the key cities in China are Ф25mm tertiary rebarThe average price is 4166 yuan (ton price, the same below), which is 9 yuan lower than yesterday; the average price of 6.5mm high line in domestic key cities is 4418 yuan, down 15 yuan from yesterday; the average price of 5.5mm hot rolled coil in domestic key cities is 4027 yuan, down 19 yuan from yesterday; the average price of 1.0mm cold plate in key domestic central cities is 4394 yuan, down 13 yuan from yesterday; the average price of 20mm medium plate in domestic key cities is 4071 yuan, down 7 yuan from yesterday. 

    In terms of raw materials, today, Tangshan area Changli 150*150 ordinary carbon billet 3570 yuan, down 10 yuan compared with yesterday; Jingtang port 61.5% grade Australian PB iron ore powder price is 685 yuan, down 5 yuan from yesterday; Tangshan area one Grade metallurgical coke including tax to the factory price of 2010 yuan, unchanged from yesterday.