Prices of base metals – copper, zinc, nickel and aluminium – in the domestic market are likely to fall in the next month or two owing mainly to the US-China trade conflict, said analysts. However, they said, prices may improve in the second quarter of this financial year as the Chinese market is expected to recover by then. 

 

Demand for copper may improve in the coming months, according to analysts, given expectations of a recovery in the housing sector and pickup in electric vehicles proproduction. Similarly, aluminium and steel demand is expected to rise on industrial and private sector buying, they said. 

 

In the past few months, base metals took a hit over fears of a global recession, trade war between the US and China, interest rate tightening and uncertainty relating to Brexit. China consumes almost half the world’s industrial metals and is therefore the key to setting prices. 

 

“Base metal prices in 2018-19 were totally dependent on the USChina trade talks, which remain inconclusive as of now,” said Prathamesh Mallya, chief analyst (non-agro commodities & currency), Angel Broking. “Looking at that we expect a downside in domestic prices for copper from current level of Rs 455 a kg to Rs 440 a kg, nickel from Rs 880 a kg to Rs 830 a kg, zinc from current Rs 224 a kg to Rs 217 a kg and aluminium to Rs 147 a kg over the next one to two months.” The election outcome in India, current account deficit concerns owing to oil and gold imports will further determine inconclusive as of now,” said Prathamesh Mallya, chief analyst (non-agro commodities & currency), Angel Broking. “Looking at that we expect a downside in domestic prices for copper from current level of Rs 455 a kg to Rs 440 a kg, nickel from Rs 880 a kg to Rs 830 a kg, zinc from current Rs 224 a kg to Rs 217 a kg and aluminium to Rs 147 a kg over the next one to two months.” The election outcome in India, current account deficit concerns owing to oil and gold imports will further determine the direction of base metals prices from here on, said analysts.

 

“I expect the rupee to go to 68-68.5 levels to a dollar, so this could put some pressure on prices over the next couple of months,” said Navneet Damani, vice president-commodity research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.